🤔 India Has a New Population Problem
For years, we have been worrying about overpopulation. Turns out we have a different problem.
India currently has a population of 1.4 billion people.Â
For years on end the suffix "billion" that was added after our population count terrified people. After all, we were one of two countries to have reached this level of population boom.Â
Books were written, research was conducted, family planning lessons touting "Ham do, Hamare do" (Having two kids is best) were popularised.  Some states have even planned to introduce policies to incentivise the two-child policy. For instance, UP is considering launching a policy that would bar people who have more than two kids from getting any government subsidies.
And all of this worked! India's fertility rate has declined and our population is set to decline 2064 onwards.
Now here’s the twist. Maybe overpopulation wasn't the problem we thought it was. And maybe we have overcorrected.
The Population Problem
Last year, after a year of the pandemic when the population numbers were evaluated, people across the world got worried.Â
Many countries had registered a higher death rate than birth rate.Â
Well, this was probably just an outcome of the pandemic, right? Things would soon correct themselves again and we would be worrying about overpopulation again.
Nope. Turns out nations across the world are looking at an eventual decline in population, thanks to low fertility rates (Fertility rate is the ratio between the number of live births in a year and the whole female population of childbearing age).
That's good news, right? No more excess pollution due to overpopulation, no extinction of resources.Â
Sadly, no. This decline in population has created a new problem altogether. One that will impact the entire world economy: a shortage of workers.
Yes, as the birth rate goes down and our life expectancy goes up, countries will have to find ways to help out an aging population without help from a robust workforce.Â
And this is a major problem for India. You see, developed countries still have resources and wealth that they can bank on to take care of their old population.
But India has neither. For years, the only strength India has had is its population. And we could leverage it to our benefit. If only we could increase our workforce participation and employ more people, we could beat out powerful countries like the US and China.
However, China's labour force participation rate is around 80%, while India's labor force participation rate is just half of that: 40%!
Wondering why there’s such a huge difference between the two neighbouring countries?
One of the major reasons is patriarchy. Many women are still either not allowed or are hesitant to enter the workforce. Only 1 in 5 women in India currently work!Â
This coupled with the fact that Indian colleges are not producing skilled candidates is causing a further shortage. So, the one resource that we do have, we cannot leverage properly.Â
Further increasing this problem is the brain drain from India. Over 50% of the first-rankers of 10th and 12th board exams between 1996-2015 left India and are still working in other countries. That means the best and the brightest of Indians are helping other countries develop.
All of this will lead to a major issue. Our country will grow old (meaning a majority of the population will consist of elderly folk instead of young people) before it becomes a rich or a developed nation. And when that happens it will be too late for us to do anything. So, action needs to be taken now. But what can the government do?
Possible Solutions
Well, lots. For starters, to ensure a higher birth rate and a higher participation of women in the workforce, the government needs to develop childcare initiatives like making daycare centers and proper paid maternity leaves.Â
Secondly, the government needs to ensure that the educational institutions that we have are not just producing graduates but individuals that have employable skills.Â
And third, we need to create better opportunities in India so that our best and brightest do not leave the country in search of a better future for themselves.Â
Also, we need to prepare ourselves for the worst. Create social security plans and welfare plans that will ensure that the aging population is taken care of and doesn't just have to rely on their kids to take care of them.Â
Do you think we will be able to achieve these objectives? Or will India turn into a poor and old nation by the turn of the century?
Only time will tell…
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